Chinese output set to depress steel valuations

Steel company valuations are poised for a fall as increased Chinese output is cutting its reliance on imported supplies.

China, for long the main driver of surging demand, is making more of its own steel, causing a potential excess of supply in other parts of the world.

Shares in BlueScope, Australia''s biggest steel company, dropped 15 per cent on Friday after it warned that profits this year would drop sharply due to higher steel production from China spilling into world markets, especially in Asia.

Shares in ThyssenKrupp of Germany fell, along with other steel companies such as the Anglo-Dutch Corus and Luxembourg''s Arcelor, as investors reasoned that the BlueScope warning could have repercussions for steelmakers globally.

Last month Ulrich Middelmann, deputy chairman of ThyssenKrupp was complaining about the high price of many metals companies.

Now, however, he may be cheered by the fact that some of the steelmakers he might be keen to purchase would soon start to look more affordable.

After a recent spate of consolidation in the industry, many steelmakers are looking at acquisitions.

Large groups such as Arcelor and Mittal Steel have snapped up smaller companies to give themselves more power to dictate prices.

After doubling in many markets in the previous three years, average prices for steel fell in the first six months of this year. However, they have edged up in recent weeks, helped by an increase in manufacturers'' stocks in the US.

That trend now looks almost certain to go into reverse in the next six months, even though the fall in prices seems unlikely to be dramatic.

The biggest culprit for the likely price decline is higher production in China which is not being matched by stronger internal demand. As a result, according to CRU, net imports into China of steel sheet an important indicator for the industry will fall from 23m tonnes in 2003 to 6.5m tonnes next year and 4.2m tonnes in 2007.

The likely fall in steel exports from other countries into China does not look all that great but it promises to be enough to influence global pricing trends.

一、參考譯文

全球鋼鐵企業的市值將出現下降，因為中國鋼鐵產量不斷增加，令其正在減少對進口供應的依賴。

長期以來，中國一直是鋼鐵需求飆升的主要推動力，但目前中國自己生產的鋼鐵增多，導致世界其它地區可能出現供應過剩。

澳大利亞比較大鋼鐵公司BlueScope的股價周五下挫15%，此前由于中國鋼鐵產量上升已影響全球市場，尤其是亞洲市場，公司警告今年利潤將急劇下降。

德國的蒂森克虜伯（ThyssenKrupp）股票與英荷哥魯氏（Anglo-Dutch Corus）、盧森堡阿塞洛（Arcelor）等企業股票的價格相繼下跌，因為投資者認為，BlueScope的預警可能會對全球鋼鐵業產生影響。

蒂森克虜伯副董事長烏爾里希？米德曼（Ulrich Middelmann）上月抱怨說，許多金屬企業價格很高。

但眼下他或許會對一個事實感到高興：不久后，他可能很想收購的一些鋼鐵生產商，會開始看上去價格更便宜、更能讓人承受。

在近期的鋼鐵行業整合大潮后，許多鋼鐵制造商正在考慮收購。

阿塞洛和米塔爾鋼鐵（Mittal Steel）等大型集團已收購一些較小的企業，以使自己得到更大的定價能力。

許多市場的鋼鐵均價在過去3年里上漲了一倍，而今年上半年價格則出現下跌。但比較近幾周，受美國制造商存貨增加的推動，該價格又有所回升。

現在看來，該趨勢在今后6個月里幾乎肯定會反轉，盡管價格的下跌似乎不可能很劇烈。

造成這種價格可能下跌的比較大原因，是中國產量的上升，但該國的內需沒有相應增加。結果，根據英國商品研究所（CRU）的數據，中國鋼板凈進口從2003年的2300萬噸，將降至明年的650萬噸，到2007年預計將降至420萬噸。鋼板凈進口是鋼鐵行業的一個重要指標。

其它國家對華鋼鐵出口可能下降，雖然降幅看上去不會如此之大，但看來足以影響全球定價趨勢。

二、重點詞匯

valuation　 n.估價，評價，計算

surging 　n.浪涌，沖擊

potential 　adj.潛在的，可能的，勢的，位的

n.潛能，潛力，電壓

reasoned 　adj.詳盡論述的，理由充分的

purchase　 vt.買，購買

n.買，購買

consolidation 　n.鞏固，合并

acquisition 　n.獲得，獲得物

dictate 　v.口述，口授，使聽寫，指令，指示，命令，規定

n.指示（指理智，變心）

dramatic 　adj.戲劇性的，生動的

influence 　n.影響，感化，勢力，有影響的人（或事）， （電磁）感應

vt.影響，改變